Illinois, Florida and New Jersey housing markets most at risk from COVID damage

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Based on the recently released second quarter 2021 coronavirus report by ATTOM Data, U.S. states along the east coast, as well as Illinois, were most at risk in the second quarter of 2021 – with clusters in the New Jersey, Delaware, the Chicago area and central Florida. – while the West has remained much less exposed.

But the 50 most at-risk counties in the United States were spread over a wider area than in the first quarter of 2021, as most states had no more than two counties in the top group during the period. the most recent.

The report found that Florida, New Jersey, other East Coast states and Illinois had 37 of the 50 counties most at risk from the potential economic impact of the pandemic in the second quarter of 2021. They included seven counties from the Chicago metro area, four near New York, all three in Delaware, and four in central Florida.

However, only Florida, New Jersey, Illinois, Louisiana and Delaware had more than two counties in the top 50, up from eight states in the first quarter of 2021. The top 50 were scattered across 18 states in the second quarter, up from 15 the previous period.

The only three western counties in the top 50 in the second quarter of this year were in northern California and southern Arizona.

Markets were considered more or less at risk based on the percentage of homes likely to be foreclosed, the portion with mortgage balances exceeding the property’s estimated value, and the percentage of average local wages required to pay major expenses. of home ownership on mid-priced homes or condominiums. The conclusions are drawn from an analysis of the most recent reports on affordability, equity and foreclosure of housing prepared by ATTOM. Rankings were based on a combination of these three categories in 564 counties in the United States with enough data to analyze in the first and second quarters of 2021. Counties were ranked in each category, from lowest to highest, with the overall conclusion based on a combination of the three ranks. See below for the full methodology.

The findings follow a year in which the national housing market continued to boom for a decade, even amid the pandemic, with median single-family home prices rising more than 10% across much of the country. While small indicators of a possible slowdown have emerged in 2021 in the form of declining housing affordability and a collapse in investor activity, the retreat of the pandemic, the growth of the employment and the improvement of the economy as a whole fueled further price increases.

Yet the pandemic remains a threat to the economy and the housing market as new viral variants emerge and clusters of virus cases continue to plague the pockets of the country.

“The coronavirus pandemic is abating and the US economy is gradually coming back to life, suggesting that the domestic real estate market will effectively escape any major damage from the crisis. No major signs are showing anything different at this point. Nonetheless, the pandemic is still here and remains a powerful threat to home sales and values, as well as to the economy in general, ”said Todd Teta, director of products at ATTOM.“ With a generally optimistic outlook, we continue to see areas that seem more at risk for falls, particularly in specific areas of the East Coast and Midwest. As we have done throughout the pandemic, we will keep a close eye on these areas in case the situation worsens and the pandemic resumes. “

The most vulnerable counties have clustered around Chicago, New York, Delaware and central Florida

Eighteen of the 50 U.S. counties most vulnerable in Q2 2021 to housing market problems related to the pandemic (among the 564 counties with enough data to be included in the report) were in metropolitan areas around New York, NY and Chicago, IL, as well as Delaware and central Florida.

They included seven which cover Chicago (Cook County) and its suburbs (De Kalb, Kane, Kendall, Lake, McHenry and Will counties) and four in the New York metropolitan area (Ocean, Passaic and Sussex counties in the New Jersey and Orange County). At New York). The four in central Florida were Highlands County (Sebring), Indian River (Vero Beach), Lake County (outside of Orlando), and Osceola County (Kissimmee).

Delaware’s three counties – New Castle (Wilmington), Kent (Dover) and Sussex (Georgetown) – also made the top 50 in the second quarter of 2021.

Other counties in Florida, New Jersey and Illinois were also on the top 50 list. Those in Florida were Bay County (Panama City), Clay County (outside of Jacksonville), and Marion County (Ocala), Florida, while those in New Jersey included Atlantic County (Atlantic City), Cumberland County (Vineland), Gloucester County (outside of Philadelphia). , PA), Mercer County (Trenton) and Warren County (near Allentown, PA). Others in Illinois were Kankakee County, Madison County (outside of St. Louis, MO), Saint Clair County (outside of St. Louis, MO), and County from Tazewell (outside of Peoria).

Additionally, Louisiana had three counties in the top 50 during the second quarter: Bossier Parish (Shreveport), Livingston Parish (outside of Baton Rouge), and Tangipahoa Parish (north of Nova Scotia). -Orléans).

The only western counties among the 50 most at risk of problems related to the coronavirus outbreak in the second quarter of 2021 were Butte County (Chico), California; Humboldt County (Eureka), CA and Mohave County, AZ (outside of Las Vegas, NV).

Higher levels of unaffordable housing, underwater mortgages and foreclosures continue to emerge in most at-risk counties

The main homeownership costs (mortgage payments, property taxes and insurance) on median-priced single-family homes consumed more than 30% of average local wages in 23 of the 50 counties most vulnerable to market problems related to the market. virus pandemic in the second quarter of 2021.

At least 15% of mortgages were underwater in the first quarter of 2021 (the latest data available on homeowners who owed more than their properties’ value) in 33 of the 50 most at-risk counties. Nationally, 10 percent of mortgages fell into this category. Those with the highest submarine rates among the 50 most at-risk counties were St. Clair County (outside of St. Louis, MO) (43.6 percent of submarine mortgages); Delaware County, Pennsylvania (excluding Philadelphia) (36.4%); Muscogee County (Columbus), Georgia (29%); Monroe County (Stroudsburg), Pennsylvania (28.2%) and Kankakee County, IL (27.1%).

More than one in 2,500 residential properties faced foreclosure action in the second quarter of 2021 in 40 of the 50 most at-risk counties. Nationally, one in 4,046 households was in this situation. (Foreclosure actions have fallen about 80% in the past year amid a federal moratorium on lenders taking back homeowners’ properties on their mortgages during the virus pandemic.) 50 major counties were in Gloucester County, NJ (outside of Philadelphia) (one in 747 residential properties subject to possible foreclosure); Cumberland County (Vineland) NJ (one in 773); Tazewell County, IL (outside of Peoria) (one in 905); Tangipahoa Parish (north of New Orleans) (one in 1,129) and Ocean County (Toms River), NJ (one in 1,336).

Least-risk counties concentrated in the South and Midwest

Thirty-six of the 50 counties least vulnerable to pandemic-related issues out of the 564 included in the second quarter report were in the South and Midwest.

Texas had 13 of the 50 least-at-risk counties, including five in the Dallas metro area (Collin, Dallas, Denton, Ellis and Tarrant counties) and two in the Austin metro area (Travis and Williamson counties). Minnesota had five, four of which were in metro Minneapolis (Dakota, Hennepin, Ramsey and Scott counties).

Others among the top 50 least-at-risk counties with a population of 500,000 or more included Harris County (Houston), TX; Middlesex County, MA (outside of Boston); Salt Lake County (Salt Lake City), UT; Macomb County, MI (outside of Detroit) and Suffolk County (Boston), MA.

Less vulnerable counties again have lower levels of unaffordable housing, underwater mortgages and foreclosure activity

The main costs of home ownership (mortgage, property taxes and insurance) of the median-priced single-family home consumed less than 30% of average local wages in 44 of the 50 counties least exposed to pandemic market problems virus in the second quarter of 2021.

More than 15% of mortgages were underwater in the first quarter of 2021 (homeowners owing more than the value of their properties) in any of the 50 least-risk counties. The ones with the lowest rates in these counties were Washington County, WI (outside of Milwaukee) (1.9 percent underwater); Chittenden County (Burlington), Vermont (2.9%); Salt Lake County (Salt Lake City), UT (3.6%); Dallas County, TX (3.7%) and Tarrant County (Fort Worth), TX (4.1%).

More than one in 2,500 residential properties faced foreclosure action in the second quarter of 2021 in any of the 50 least-at-risk counties. Those with the lowest rates in these counties included Missoula County, MT (no residential property subject to foreclosure); Chittenden (Burlington) County, Vermont (one in 69,734); Olmstead (Rochester) County, MN (one in 65,380); Davidson County (Nashville), TN (one in 44,624) and Rutherford County (Murfreesboro), TN (one in 39,564).


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